"If the Primary Election Were Held Today..."

So how do the candidates’ brands translate into votes?  We turn to that old standby of political polling: “If the primary were held today, who would you most likely vote for?”

It should be noted that we while we asked this traditional question of political polling, we didn’t ask it in the usual way. That’s because our interest isn’t the horse race, but the brand perceptions of the candidates.  By asking respondents to rate the candidates on individual attributes before asking them to declare a preference, we believe we get a clearer picture of how the candidates are seen by voters.

Just as McCain and Giuliani virtually split the individual brand attributes we measure, they are essentially tied in the horse race.  In the multi-candidate field, McCain leads Giuliani 29 percent to 25 percent – within the survey’s margin of error.  Romney, Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich each have support in  the 10 to 11 percent range.

If the race is narrowed to the top three contenders, Giuliani gains two points on McCain, but still trails with 34 percent to McCain’s 36 percent.  Again, this is within the margin of error.  Romney remains a distant third at 21 percent.